It’s often said that baseball is a game of records. In Major League Baseball (MLB), the ever-advancing science of the game has produced numbers that were once unimaginable. Exit velocity and launch angle are two of them, and they generate other data such as expected batting average (wBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and weighted on-base percentage (wOBA).토토사이트

Bat speed and launch angle are the basis for calculating things like expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. Once we have some bat speed and launch angle after a hit, we use all past observable hits to derive probabilities. For example, if you hit a line drive to the right-center field gap, and that speed and launch angle have been hit about 80% of the time in the past, your expected batting average is 8%. If the outfielder catches that pitch, he’s in line for a huge payday.

The key is that these records are still probabilities. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays), who finished second in American League Most Valuable Player (MVP) voting behind Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels) in 2021, was initially touted as having the talent to surpass his father. But his home run total dropped from 48 in 2021 to 32 last year.

His pace this season (70 games, nine homers) is even slower. His OPS, which was .601 two years ago, is in the low-to-mid 4s. He’s a high-production player with a spike in launch angle and hard contact, but the results aren’t quite what you’d expect. Heading into the season, it was expected that the Rogers Centre, Toronto’s home stadium, would be a home run machine. The reality is that he hasn’t hit a single home run at home, which is ironic.

Bobby Witt Jr. is not performing as expected. Getty Images

Bobby Witt Jr. (Kansas City Royals) is in a similar situation. As of Sept. 19, Witt Jr. is batting .244 (70-for-287) with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs in 70 games. His on-base percentage (.283) and slugging percentage (.422) combine for an OPS of .704. With his combination of power and speed, he could easily join the 30-homer, 30-steal club, but there’s a big difference between the numbers and the reality. Wiet Jr. is one of those players who has a pretty wide gap between his expected runs per at-bat and his actual performance.

Pitchers are no exception. When he debuted in 2021, Ryder Detmers (Angels) was touted as a superstar prospect. After all, he was selected with the 10th overall pick in the first round of the 2020 amateur draft and signed for $4.67 million. But this season, his ERA has hovered in the mid-to-high 4s. Digging deeper into the numbers, Dettmer’s struggles don’t make sense.

Los Angeles Angels pitcher Ryder Dettmer. Getty Images

Hitters have a 13.3% chance of hitting Detmers’ pitches in the sweet spot (8-32 degrees of launch angle). That’s in the top 10 in the league. You can’t have a high expected batting average or expected on-base percentage if you’re not hitting the sweet spot. Not only that, but he also ranks in the top 15 percent for allowing hard-hit balls over 98 mph (157.7 km/h).

However, his BABIP, which is the probability of a hit on an in-play pitch, is high at 0.377. Record believers interpret this as simply a case of bad luck. Considering that the Angels’ defense ranks in the top 10 in the league, Dettmer’s mediocre performance this season is hard to understand.

Once again, baseball is a sport of records, but that doesn’t mean that projected records will match actual results. As we’ve seen, the gap can be quite large. While it’s important to communicate information, it’s also important that players, teams, and fans don’t get caught up in the “record flood”.

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